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R.I. Department of Revenue releases September 2016 revenue assessment report

Providence, R.I. -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2017 Revenue Assessment Report for September 2016. The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget. The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report.

1. September Year-To-Date Performance. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the September 2016 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are ahead of expected total general revenues, based on the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $9.4 million more than expected total general revenues, a variance of 1.2 percent.

2. September Monthly Performance. Adjusted FY 2017 September total general revenues Trailed expected FY 2017 monthly total general revenues based on the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, by $12.2 million or 3.9 percent.

Regarding September year-to-date performance, Director of Revenue Robert S. Hull made the following observations: Fiscal year-to-date growth in revenues through September slowed considerably and are now $9.4 million ahead of expectations, or 1.2 percent vs. $21.2 million and 4.5 percent in August. The spread between adjusted and expected personal income tax revenues totaled $6.1 million and includes an adjustment that reduces refunds and adjustments by $9.3 million to account for July and August 2016 refunds that were accrued back to FY 2016. o Adjusted FY 2017 through September personal income tax withholding payments lead expectations by $12.0 million, or 4.6 percent. o Both personal income tax estimated payments and refunds and adjustments have fallen short of expectations through September by a combined $8.1 million. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues through September are slightly ahead of expectations by $1.3 million, or 0.5 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues are 5.4 percent less than expected FY 2017 through September business corporations tax revenues, a difference of $(1.3 million). Adjusted estate and transfer tax revenues through September remain $3.1 million ahead of expectations, a variance of 58.0 percent. FY 2017 year-to-date adjusted lottery transfer revenues are in line with expected lottery transfer revenues through September with a positive variance of $197,316 or 0.3 percent.

Regarding September monthly performance, Director Hull made the following observations: September adjusted monthly revenues are $12.2 million, or 3.9 percent, less than expected monthly revenues with weakness in nearly all of the major general revenue sources. Monthly adjusted personal income tax revenues lag expected September personal income tax revenues by $5.0 million, a variance of 3.6 percent. o September personal income tax withholding payments remained a bright spot at 1.8 percent more than expected, a difference of $1.6 million. o Personal income tax estimated payments for September were $6.7 million below expectations, a variance of 12.8 percent and $1.6 million more in personal income tax refunds and adjustments were realized in September than expected. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues for September trail expectations by $1.8 million, or 2.1 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues for September are $3.1 million less than expected monthly revenues, a variance of 20.9 percent. FY 2017 September adjusted lottery transfer revenues are $1.7 million below expectations with video lottery terminal revenues $1.2 million less than expected for September.

The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site, www.dor.ri,gov, under the Revenue Analysis header on the State Reports tab.

Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 574-8766.

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