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R.I. Department of Revenue releases October 2016 revenue assessment report

Providence, R.I. -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2017 Revenue Assessment Report for October 2016. The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget. The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report. All of the information contained in this report was available to the principals of the November 2016 Revenue Estimating Conference prior to the adoption of revised revenue estimates on November 10, 2016.

1. October Year-To-Date Performance. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the October 2016 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are ahead of expected total general revenues, based on the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $7.5 million more than expected total general revenues, a variance of 0.7 percent.

2. October Monthly Performance. Adjusted FY 2017 October total general revenues trailed expected FY 2017 monthly total general revenues based on the revenue estimates enacted in the FY 2017 budget and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, by $1.9 million or 0.7 percent.

Regarding October year-to-date performance, Director of Revenue Robert S. Hull made the following observations: Fiscal year-to-date growth in revenues through October continued to slow and are now $7.5 million ahead of expectations, or 0.7 percent vs. $9.4 million and 1.2 percent in September. The spread between adjusted and expected personal income tax revenues totaled $6.6 million and includes an adjustment that reduces refunds and adjustments by $9.3 million to account for July and August 2016 refunds that were accrued back to FY 2016. o Adjusted FY 2017 through October personal income tax withholding payments lead expectations by $11.1 million, or 3.2 percent and include receipt of a large, infrequently occurring payment in August 2016. o Both personal income tax estimated payments and refunds and adjustments have fallen short of expectations through October by a combined $11.3 million. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues through October lag expectations by $1.5 million, or 0.4 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues are 3.4 percent more than expected FY 2017 through October business corporations tax revenues, a difference of $900,969. Adjusted estate and transfer tax revenues through October rose to $4.2 million ahead of expectations, a variance of 57.0 percent. FY 2017 year-to-date adjusted lottery transfer revenues trail expected lottery transfer revenues through October with a negative variance of $798,149 or 0.9 percent.

Regarding October monthly performance, Director Hull made the following observations: October adjusted monthly revenues are $1.9 million, or 0.7 percent, less than expected monthly revenues. Monthly adjusted personal income tax revenues lead expected October personal income tax revenues by $516,452, a variance of 0.6 percent. o October personal income tax withholding payments fell behind expected monthly personal income tax withholding payments for the first time this fiscal year albeit by less than $1.0 million a variance of 1.0 percent. o Personal income tax final payments for October were $4.5 million above expectations, a variance of 52.0 percent and include $4.0 million of reimbursed Historic Structures Tax Credit redemptions. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues for October trail expectations by $2.8 million, or 3.2 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues for October are $2.2 million more than expected monthly revenues, a variance of 85.7 percent. FY 2017 October adjusted lottery transfer revenues are $995,465 below expectations with combined games and video lottery terminal revenues $1.1 million less than expected for October. The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site, www.dor.ri,gov, under the Revenue Analysis header on the State Reports tab.

Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 574-8766.

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