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R.I. Department of Revenue releases November 2016 revenue assessment report

Providence, R.I -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2017 Revenue Assessment Report for November 2016. The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 Revenue Estimating Conference. The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report. This month's report is the first report to assess adjusted general revenues using the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 Revenue Estimating Conference (REC).

1. November Year-To-Date Performance. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the November 2016 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are ahead of expected total general revenues, based on the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $6.2 million more than expected total general revenues, a variance of 0.5 percent.

2. November Monthly Performance. Adjusted FY 2017 November total general revenues led expected FY 2017 monthly total general revenues based on the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, by $6.5 million or 2.8 percent.

Regarding November year-to-date performance, Director of Revenue Robert S. Hull made the following observations: Fiscal year-to-date growth in revenues through November continued to slow and are now $6.2 million ahead of expectations, or 0.5 percent vs. $7.5 million and 0.7 percent in October. The spread between adjusted and expected personal income tax revenues totaled $7.4 million and includes an adjustment that reduces refunds and adjustments by $9.3 million to account for July and August 2016 refunds that were accrued back to FY 2016. o Adjusted FY 2017 year-to-date personal income tax final payments are $7.5 million more than expected, a variance of 32.4 percent. o Adjusted FY 2017 through November personal income tax withholding payments lead expectations by $1.7 million, or 0.4 percent and include receipt of a large, infrequently occurring payment in August 2016. o Both personal income tax estimated payments and refunds and adjustments have fallen short of expectations through November by a combined $1.8 million in spite of the receipt of $2.6 million in large estimated payments in November 2016. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues through November lag expectations by $2.7 million, or 0.6 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues are 8.8 percent more than expected FY 2017 through November business corporations tax revenues, a difference of $2.5 million. Adjusted cigarettes tax revenues through November rose to $1.7 million ahead of expectations, a variance of 2.9 percent. FY 2017 year-to-date adjusted lottery transfer revenues trail expected lottery transfer revenues through November with a negative variance of $1.1 million or 0.9 percent.

Regarding November monthly performance, Director Hull made the following observations: November adjusted monthly revenues are $6.5 million, or 2.8 percent, more than expected monthly revenues. Monthly adjusted personal income tax revenues lead expected November personal income tax revenues by $5.8 million, a variance of 6.4 percent. o November adjusted personal income tax withholding payments trail expected monthly personal income tax withholding payments by $3.2 million a variance of 3.3 percent. o Adjusted personal income tax final payments for November were $1.2 million above expectations, a variance of 39.0 percent and include $1.3 million of reimbursed Historic Structures Tax Credit redemptions. o Adjusted personal income tax estimated payments and personal income tax refunds and adjustments for November exceeded monthly expectations by a combined $7.7 million due in part to the deposit of $2.6 million of large estimated payments in November 2016 Adjusted sales and use tax revenues for November trail expectations by $2.2 million, or 2.6 percent. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues for November are $2.4 million more than expected monthly revenues, a variance of 318.7 percent. FY 2017 November adjusted cigarettes tax revenues are $2.2 million above expectations for November, a variance of 21.4 percent. The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site, www.dor.ri,gov, under the Revenue Analysis header on the State Reports tab.

Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 574-8766.

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