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R.I. Department of Revenue releases December 2016 revenue assessment report

Providence, R.I -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2017 Revenue Assessment Report for December 2016. The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 Revenue Estimating Conference. The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report. This month's report assesses adjusted general revenues using the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 Revenue Estimating Conference (REC).

1. December Year-To-Date Performance. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the December 2016 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are behind expected total general revenues, based on the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $10.3 million less than expected total general revenues, a variance of 0.7 percent.

2. December Monthly Performance. Adjusted FY 2017 December total general revenues trailed expected FY 2017 monthly total general revenues based on the revenue estimates adopted at the November 2016 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, by $16.5 million or 5.5 percent.

Regarding December year-to-date performance, Director of Revenue Robert S. Hull made the following observations: Fiscal year-to-date growth in total general revenues through December declined appreciably and are now $10.3 million below expectations, or 0.7 percent vs. $6.2 million and 0.5 percent in November. The spread between adjusted and expected personal income tax revenues was negative $2.2 million and includes an adjustment that reduces refunds and adjustments by $9.3 million to account for July and August 2016 refunds that were accrued back to FY 2016. o Adjusted FY 2017 year-to-date personal income tax final payments are $7.1 million more than expected, a variance of 27.0 percent. o Adjusted FY 2017 through December personal income tax withholding payments trail expectations by $4.4 million, or 0.8 percent and include receipt of a large, infrequently occurring payment in August 2016. o Both personal income tax estimated payments and refunds and adjustments have fallen short of expectations through December by a combined $4.9 million in spite of the receipt of $2.6 million in large estimated payments in November 2016. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues through December lag expectations by $4.9 million, or 0.9 percent. Adjusted financial institutions tax tax and estate and transfer tax revenues are a combined $5.9 million below expectations for FY 2017 through December. Adjusted business corporations tax revenues are 6.6 percent more than expected FY 2017 through December business corporations tax revenues, a difference of $2.7 million. Adjusted cigarettes tax revenues through December are $1.0 million ahead of expectations, a variance of 1.4 percent. FY 2017 year-to-date adjusted lottery transfer revenues trail expected lottery transfer revenues through December with a negative variance of $1.1 million or 0.8 percent.

Regarding December monthly performance, Director Hull made the following observations: December adjusted monthly revenues are $16.5 million, or 5.5 percent, less than expected monthly revenues. Monthly adjusted personal income tax revenues trail expected December personal income tax revenues by $9.6 million, a variance of 7.0 percent. o December adjusted personal income tax withholding payments trail expected monthly personal income tax withholding payments by $6.1 million a variance of 5.4 percent. o Adjusted personal income tax final payments for December were $373,931 below expectations, a variance of 11.6 percent and include $267,629 of reimbursed Historic Structures Tax Credit redemptions. o Adjusted personal income tax estimated payments and personal income tax refunds and adjustments for December lagged monthly expectations by a combined $3.1 million. Adjusted sales and use tax revenues for December trail expectations by $2.2 million, or 2.8 percent. Adjusted financial institutions tax revenues for December are $2.2 million less than expected monthly revenues, a variance of 67.2 percent. FY 2017 December adjusted estate and transfer tax revenues are $1.8 million below expectations for December, a variance of 51.6 percent. The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site, www.dor.ri,gov, under the Revenue Analysis header on the State Reports tab.

Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 574-8766.

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