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July 2020 Revenue Assessment report available

Providence, R.I. -- The Rhode Island Department of Revenue (DOR) today released its FY 2021 Revenue Assessment Report for July 2020. The Revenue Assessment Report, which is issued on a monthly basis, compares the adjusted general revenues by revenue source on a fiscal year-to-date and monthly basis to expected general revenues by revenue source. Expected general revenues are estimated by the DOR's Office of Revenue Analysis from the revised FY 2021 revenue estimates adopted at the May 2020 Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). The methodology underlying the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimates is contained in the report.

July Year-To-Date Performance: On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the July 2020 report shows that adjusted total general revenues are ahead of expected total general revenues, based on the revised FY 2021 revenue estimates adopted at the May 2020 REC and the Office of Revenue Analysis' estimation methodology, with adjusted total general revenues $37.3 million more than expected total general revenues, a variance of 16.4%. The strongest driver of this outperformance are excise tax revenues, which are up $18.7 million, or 16.4%, over expectations. Adjusted personal income tax revenues for the fiscal year-to-date through July are $12.9 million more than expected, a variance of 14.6%. General business tax adjusted revenues are $3.3 million ahead of the estimate, or 38.6% while combined other tax and departmental adjusted revenues are $2.5 million over expectations, or 14.9% on a fiscal year-to-date basis.

1. Fiscal Year-to-Date Summary of Findings: Regarding July year-to-date performance, Director of Revenue Mark A. Furcolo made the following observations: Fiscal year-to-date adjusted total general revenues through July are $37.3 million ahead of expectations based on the FY 2021 revised estimates adopted at the May 2020 REC, a variance of 16.4%; FY 2021 year-to-date adjusted sales and use tax revenues through July exceed expectations by $13.9 million, or 13.8% likely a reflection of the increased spending capability of consumers as a result of the $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefits and the federal COVID-19 relief payments; Adjusted personal income tax revenues through July are $12.9 million above the estimate, a variance of 14.6%, led by strong personal income tax withholding payment revenues, which may have benefitted from the $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefits and the phased reopening of the state's economy. The outperformance of personal income tax withholding revenues was supported by solid gains relative to expectations in both personal income tax estimated and final payments revenues, which on a combined basis were $2.8 million above the estimate, a difference of 36.4%; Fiscal year-to-date through July cigarette and other tobacco products excise tax revenues are $4.8 million more than estimated, a variance of 43.7%, with this gain possibly due to the banning of flavored tobacco and cigarettes in Massachusetts effective June 1, 2020; and Adjusted insurance company gross premiums tax revenues were above expectations by $1.5 million in FY 2021 year-to- date and estate and transfer tax adjusted revenues ahead of the estimate by $1.2 million or 37.6% on a fiscal year-to-date basis through July.

July Monthly Performance: Given that July is the first month of the fiscal year, there is no difference in the assessment of revenues on a fiscal year-to-date and a monthly basis.

The entire report can be found on the Department of Revenue's web site at http://www.dor.ri.gov/revenue-analysis/2021.php.

Questions or comments on the report should be directed to Paul Grimaldi, Chief of Information and Public Relations by e-mail at paul.grimaldi@revenue.ri.gov or by phone at (401) 574-8766.

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